The Saints (9-12) need to win their last two games - against Richmond and Gold Coast - and also rely on Carlton (11-10) losing to the Bulldogs and Dockers in order to snare 10th spot.
It's a big task and one unlikely to pan out especially after star midfielder Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera suffered a season-ending hamstring injury and Mason Wood was cut down by a calf strain during last week's 44-point loss to Carlton.
St Kilda's struggles this year have been harder to digest for fans after the club snared Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan and Sam Flanders during a big-money off-season splurge.
Lyon, who is in the fourth season of his second coming at St Kilda, put his hand up to take responsibility for the team's shortcomings.
"We don't say we're coaching great and you're playing bad," Lyon said on Wednesday.
"It's like we need to coach better and help you play better. That's the space I come from and ultimately I take full responsibility for where we're at.
"We've improved, but not enough. I don't shy away from anything."
Lyon said his team's poor movement out of the back half was the biggest area they needed to fix.
"To be honest if we didn't make it (wildcard round) clearly we'll all be disappointed," Lyon said ahead of Saturday's clash with Richmond at the MCG.
"We want to play finals. We played finals in our first year here with a young team.
"Our self image is we want to be successful, so clearly we're not at the minute.
"We're here to win. We're here to build. I think the wildcard, if you're not making the top 10 in the AFL, you can't measure yourself as a success.
"I live in the real world, we've got to improve."
No exact timeline has been set for Wanganeen-Milera's return, but it's unlikely he would be able to return this year unless the Saints made the grand final.
"He'll come back and lead pre-season and continue to do what he's doing on his path to leading the club and the team with great football," Lyon said.
