The measures, implemented on January 1, cap Australian beef exports to China at 205,000 tonnes, with a 55 per cent tariff applied to product shipped beyond the quota.
RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the post-quota tariff would likely make additional trade unviable.
“With the new quota limiting Australian exports to China, it will potentially mean the diversion of about 100,000 tonnes of Australian beef to alternative markets,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Australian beef production is expected to remain high in 2026, following historically large output in 2025.
“Australian beef production started this year in a similar way to how it finished 2025 — with strong prices and large volumes,” he said.
Brazil is likely to face similar constraints, increasing competition for available global market share.
“The 55 per cent out-of-quota tariff is likely to push significant volumes into alternative destinations, shifting competitive dynamics across North America, Asia and parts of Europe and the Middle East,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
More than half of Australia’s exports to China, about 55 per cent, are grain-fed beef, including brisket, manufacturing beef and shin and shank cuts.
These products are not always easily absorbed into alternative premium markets at comparable prices.
Japan and South Korea are already importing at high levels, while the United States typically demands different specifications and cuts.
“Distributing Australian product across a range of markets, most likely through Southeast Asia, appears to be the best solution,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Despite uncertainty around China’s trade settings, market confidence remains strong.
“Global markets remain solid and prices for heavy finished cattle and cows remain at historically high levels,” he said.
Prices for younger stock are closer to the five-year average, reflecting a more balanced production environment without significant restocking or destocking activity.
