A man in his 40s was gunned down outside a west Sydney duplex where it is believed he was working on Wednesday afternoon, a day after a university student was shot dead in his family's southwest Sydney home.
It is at least the fifth suspected mistaken identity killing since May 2025, with fears reckless overseas criminal leaders are worsening the misguided attacks.
Whether the botched hits were organised from overseas and carried out by young, local guns-for-hire will form one line of detectives' inquiries.
Former detective and policing expert Vincent Hurley told AAP crime was no longer organised.
"(Organised crime leaders) don't care (about mistaken identity shootings), because it's of no consequence to them ... it's going to make it harder for police to actually pin that homicide or that home invasion back to the principal, the organised crime syndicate," Dr Hurley said.
"They've got nothing to lose, this is a form of insurance ... ironically, however, the kids that carry out these things are a bit of a weak link because they don't have the same."
Despite the back-to-back killings, top NSW government ministers insist the situation is under control.
"NSW Police are on top of this," Acting Premier Prue Car told reporters on Thursday.
Under-pressure Police Minister Yasmin Catley made similar claims.
"I do not accept this is out of control ... we will not surrender our streets to organised crime gangs," she said.
She added Sydney's new criminal model was both changing and difficult.
"Let's be honest here ... this is very challenging. Police are doing everything they can," she said.
Commissioner Mal Lanyon said involvement of overseas criminals was making police work more challenging.
"(But) those that are committing these offences are onshore," he said.
"I need people to understand there are serious consequences for each and every one of these offences, and we won't rest until we put them before the court."
He said police would ramp up their presence in the city's southwest, with high visibility accompanying tireless investigations.
Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane said Sydney was supposed to be a safe and secure city.
"It doesn't feel like that anymore … people are concerned, they're frightened," she said on Thursday.
A car containing a number of people pulled up alongside a Merrylands West home on Bruce Street about 3.15pm on Wednesday.
Shots struck the victim, who is yet to be formally identified, moments after he arrived with a male resident and two young children.
While the home owners were known to police for organised crime links, the victim was not, Detective Superintendent Simon Glasser said.
A day earlier, multiple attackers entered a two-storey home in Glen Alpine, near Campbelltown in southwest Sydney, about 3.40am on Tuesday.
They fatally shot 23-year-old Marco Tapia in his bedroom while his family were home.
The young man was not known to police and had nothing more than a traffic offence on his record.
No arrests have been made over the two killings.
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