The Resolve Strategic poll published in the Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday shows Labor is ahead with a primary vote of 37 per cent.
The coalition's primary vote is on 34 per cent, down from the 42 per cent vote it recorded in the 2019 election.
However, Dominic Perrottet's rating as preferred premier is the highest since he succeeded Gladys Berejiklian in 2021 despite his recent admission that he wore a Nazi costume to his 21st birthday party.
The premier apologised for his behaviour, describing the incident as a naive mistake that did not reflect his views.
The poll found one-third of voters favoured Mr Perrottet as premier, while 29 per cent backed Labor's Chris Minns. More than one-third of voters remained undecided.
The Greens are on a primary vote of 12 per cent, while independents are polling at 11 per cent as so-called "teal" candidates target a series of coalition blue-ribbon electorates in the hope of repeating successes from the federal election last year.
A recent YouGov poll, published in The Sunday Telegraph, also predicted the end of 12 years of coalition government in NSW at the election on March 25.
If found Labor led the coalition by 56 per cent to 44 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while it was ahead by 39-33 per cent on first preferences.
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