Welcome falls: The Goulburn Valley has a good chance of exceeding median rainfall in autumn and the possibility of extremely wet conditions.
Photo by
Rodney Braithwaite
Autumn rainfall is likely to be above median for the Shepparton region.
The Bureau of Meteorology outlook puts the chance of greater than median (85mm) in the three months from March to May at 61 per cent.
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There is a 29 per cent chance of unusually wet conditions or higher than 131mm.
Past accuracy for the autumn rainfall forecast is moderate to high, so there is reasonable confidence in the modelling.
Confidence is also helped by the continued presence of a mature La Niña event in the tropical Pacific, with observations and climate models suggesting the event is past its peak, but still having some influence.
Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022 but until then will continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of northern and eastern Australia.
The outlook indicates little relief for flood ravaged south-east Queensland and north-east NSW with up to 2.5 per cent times the usual chance of unusually high rainfall over the next three months.
The BoM said the outlook is in the top 20 per cent of historical records for the already flood ravaged regions.
