MDBA analysis, as interpreted by the VFF, indicates that additional buybacks are unlikely to deliver meaningful environmental gains across the Basin and would result in no improvement for Victorian river systems.
The analysis examined 115 environmental indicators across the Basin and found that only 13 were predicted to show marginal improvement if the remaining water recovery required under the Basin Plan were achieved.
The remaining recovery task is estimated at around 550 gigalitres.
VFF Water Council chair Andrew Leahy said the findings reinforced long‑held concerns about the social and economic cost of buybacks in irrigation‑dependent regions.
He argued that removing water from productive use can have long‑term consequences for farming businesses, food processors and regional employment, while potentially offering limited environmental return.
The federation believes the review process highlights the need to rethink how the Basin policy is delivered.
Rather than relying on a “just add water” approach, the VFF is urging governments to prioritise targeted environmental works and complementary measures.
These include habitat restoration, improving fish passage, revegetation and erosion control to maximise outcomes from water already recovered.
The VFF said this next phase of the Basin reform presents an opportunity to balance environmental objectives with the needs of regional communities and national food security.
Mr Leahy said healthy rivers and strong regional economies should be treated as mutually reinforcing goals, not competing ones.
As consultation on the Basin Plan Review continues, regional stakeholders are calling for policies that deliver practical, on‑ground environmental improvements while sustaining agricultural production and jobs in Basin communities.
