Flight Centre suffered a difficult June quarter after the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, which disrupted travel plans across the world and dented the travel agency group's sales and profits in the back end of 2025/26.
But it's now seeing green shoots, with interest in leisure travel building in the first month of 2026/27, particularly for outbound journeys from Australia to the US, UK and Europe.
Flight Centre's bottom-line net profit for 2025/26 still spiked by 36.2 per cent to $149.1 million, on sales - referred to as total transaction value - of $25.7 billion, a gain of 4.7 per cent.
But its underlying result - the group's preferred measure - was disappointing with profit before tax falling four per cent to $278 million in the year ended June 30.
Before the war, Flight Centre was tracking well ahead of the previous year and preparing for the fourth quarter, traditionally one of its busiest periods.
However, the war ended up shaving a substantial $60 million off that quarter's result, despite record group sales - or total transaction value - rising 4.7 per cent to $25.7 billion for the year.
Flight Centre's underlying corporate profit jumped 28 per cent to $240 million, offsetting a 21.7 per cent decline in leisure market profit to $139 million.
But things are looking up, with the group reporting signs of a recovery in the first four weeks of 2026/27, with leisure total transaction volumes besting its 2019 peak and delivering its best profit result since 2015, as US and UK bookings bounced higher through July. The profit outcome wasn't specified.
"This is a signal that we are returning to the healthy TTV and profit growth we were delivering during the third quarter of last year," global chief executive Graham Turner said on Wednesday.
Flight Centre is also seeing a rebound in two of its most important markets.
"After the prolonged (US) tariff and immigration related downturn, US sales have now returned to year-on-year growth for two straight months, both in June and July, which is the first time we've seen that since financial year 2025," Mr Turner told an earnings briefing.
"So thank you, Donald Trump, for that."
Sales for the UK are also moving back up, which Mr Turner said was a positive lead indicator ahead of the group's upcoming early bird airfare sales.
At the same time, upward pressure on airfares between Australia and the UK and Europe is stabilising, with Middle Eastern carriers sitting around the $2600 mark in return fares for August and September departures.
"And that's based on late July pricing," Mr Turner said.
Meanwhile, the trend in corporate travel remains consistent, with solid growth through July, although the Middle East issue is still creating instability.
This means the division's profit is likely to be weighted to the second half of 2026/27, after also taking into account the timing of new account wins.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen said that while Flight Centre's result wasn't perfect, it was still a good one.
"Leisure appears to be back," he said, adding that the company could deliver a 2026/27 underlying profit after tax higher than consensus expectations of $334 million if that trend continues.
Share in Flight Centre, which won't release its official guidance until its annual general meeting of shareholders in November, fell 3.6 per cent to $12.49 in morning trade on Wednesday.
The group will pay a final dividend of 30 cents, taking the total for the year to 42 cents.
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