The Queensland senator is expected to announce he will run for the seat of Capricornia, vacated by coalition MP Michelle Landry, who on October 23 announced she will not recontest the seat she has held since 2013.
Ms Landry's resignation prompted widespread speculation Senator Canavan, who lives in the electorate, would resign and make a bid for the lower house seat, which the LNP holds on a 5.8 per cent margin.
The Nationals leader holds the second spot on the coalition's Queensland Senate ticket, behind Liberal James McGrath.
He won the second of two Queensland Senate seats the LNP won six years ago, but One Nation's recent polling surge means they could conceivably pinch that second upper house berth.
But Senator Canavan could still face a stiff challenge from the anti-immigration party as its national director James Ashby has not ruled out standing as a candidate for Capricornia himself.
The One Nation party elder has served as Pauline Hanson's chief of staff and lives on the Capricorn coast, where he made an unsuccessful tilt for the seat of Keppel at the 2024 Queensland election.
One Nation placed third on primary votes in Capricornia at the 2025 federal election, behind the LNP and Labor, and registered about a one per cent swing in their favour.
Senator Canavan initially downplayed reports he would run for the central Queensland seat, saying the matter was up to LNP membership.
He had previously said he would do what it takes to keep a strong coalition presence in the region despite the prospect of a One Nation wipe-out.
It is expected he will announce a move to seek preselection for the electorate later on Monday.
National Senate leader Bridget McKenzie said One Nation should not be contesting coalition-held seats if it was serious about taking the fight to Labor.
"If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor Party seats instead of running against someone like Matt Canavan," she told Nine's Today program.
"(I'm) not afraid of a fight - I want to save our country, and that means changing the prime minister, and that means taking Labor Party seats."
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