Scrutiny is ratcheting up on Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's plan to cut the tobacco excise by 80 per cent to reduce the cost of a standard packet of 20 cigarettes to between about $16 and $26.
The current cost of an illegal equivalent pack is $15 or less.
The coalition's policy also includes legalising vapes, $200 million for law enforcement and an extra $60 million for a public anti-smoking campaign.
Mr Taylor said he had continually heard from law enforcement and other experts that they had "lost control and it wouldn't matter what they did".
"They can't control it anymore because the difference in price between a legal packet of cigarettes and an illegal packet of cigarettes is too high," he told reporters on Monday.
One Nation has also proposed a 75 per cent cut to the tobacco excise.
Former Victorian detective and drug squad team leader Charlie Bezzina doesn't believe either will be enough to change smokers' behaviour.
"Realistically, I don't think they can bring down the excise to match the cost," he told AAP.
"Even if there is $1 to be saved, or $2 to be saved, the illegal market is going to continue to thrive ... we're a selfish race."
Mr Bezzina raised the prospect of making it an offence for smokers caught possessing black market cigarettes or vapes.
"Do we want to go down that path? No we don't," Mr Bezzina said.
"But if there's a supply and there's a customer base for it, then you're never going to stop it."
About 80 per cent of all tobacco consumed in 2025 was illegal, up from 12 per cent in 2017, according to estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
At the same time, the tobacco excise has more than tripled.
Health Minister Mark Butler said there was no evidence reducing the excise would make a "material difference" to the illegal market without doing harm to smoking rates.
Mr Butler and health experts were "living in a fantasy land" when arguing the high cost of cigarettes was still driving down smoking rates, Australian Association of Convenience Stores chief executive Theo Foukkare said.
"A pack of smokes today in Australia is between $12 and $15, that's actually what consumers are paying more than eight times out of 10 if you're an adult," he said.
Mr Foukkare also disputed Mr Butler's claim that the impact of excise changes had not been modelled, pointing to separate research commissioned by his organisation and Ritchies IGA.
"Mark Butler is a flat-out liar," he said.
"There is evidence."
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