The wage outlook has drawn renewed attention after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he wanted "a bit more data" on the initial momentum of next year's wage talks - notably whether firms hit by US tariffs would keep lifting pay.
Labour unions have already made clear they will again demand bumper pay hikes.
Sustained wage growth would underpin private consumption, giving the BOJ confidence to raise rates without derailing Japan's economic recovery.
Despite hefty increases in recent years, real wage growth has remained negative as core consumer inflation has held above the BOJ's two per cent target.
Rengo, Japan's largest labour union umbrella group, with seven million members, is seeking wage hikes of five per cent or more in 2026. That is what Rengo asked for in 2025, resulting in the biggest pay hike in 34 years.
The top union for automakers, among the industries hit hardest by US tariffs, also has no plans to scale back its wage demands at labour talks for next year despite profit squeezes, its chief told Reuters this month.
Japan's annual wage negotiations typically start with unions drafting demands late in the closing year, followed by formal talks early the next year, with settlements announced in March.
Companies, to be sure, may not heed union demands on 2026 wages as the hit from higher US levies on shipments of Japanese goods is likely to intensify in coming months, clouding the outlook for the export-reliant economy.
But so far manufacturers are holding up, with a Reuters poll this month showing sentiment hit a nearly four-year high in November, buoyed by softness in the yen and solid orders.
A tight labour market is also likely to pressure companies to stick with generous pay hikes.
A separate Reuters survey this month showed 72 per cent of respondents intend to raise wages next year at about the same rate as in 2025.
A November survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research showed economists projecting that wage hikes would average 4.88 per cent next year.
That is higher than the 4.74 per cent estimated in January for this year's wage talks, which resulted in a 5.52 per cent increase.
"Companies have plenty of scope to raise wages," with profits remaining elevated, said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
He expects hikes averaging 5.2 per cent in next year's wage talks, slower than this year's but exceeding five per cent for three straight years.
Companies may also face pressure for wage hikes from the new administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has vowed to build a strong economy in which wage gains outpace inflation.
Domestic media have reported that Japan's biggest business lobby, Keidanren, will stress the need to maintain "strong wage momentum" in guidelines due in January to member companies for next year's wage talks.
BOJ Governor Ueda told parliament on Friday the central bank was still in the midst of gathering data and information on the wage outlook, including from its branches nationwide.
"The BOJ will discuss the feasibility and timing of an interest rate hike at upcoming meetings looking closely at various data and information," he said.
