Pacific Island nation Tuvalu has poured cold water on a report that a huge chunk of its citizens are eager to move to Australia through a world-first climate visa.
It is instead likely that many applicants are ineligible, have applied multiple times, already live outside Tuvalu or seek easier visa-free travel.
The groundbreaking Falepili Union, agreed in 2023, is a treaty supporting the Polynesian nation's adaption to climate change and sea-level rise, including development projects.
It also includes a residency pathway to Australia open to Tuvaluans through a ballot, with 280 visas issued annually to the nation of 10,600 people.
Last week, Agence France-Presse reported 3125 people entered the visa ballot, which costs $A25, in the first four days of the application window opening in June.
Australia's Department of Home Affairs confirms that number has grown to 4052 applicants as of Friday, consisting of 1124 primary registrations and their family members.
That does equate to one-third of the population wanting out, Tuvalu Energy Minister Simon Kofe says.
"It is open to Tuvalu citizens wherever you are living in the world and I believe many of the the applicants are also applying from overseas," he told ABC News.
"We do have a quite a big population of Tuvaluans living in Fiji, in other Pacific Island countries, and of course New Zealand and Australia."
Mr Kofe said up to 5000 Tuvaluans lived in New Zealand, while Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed 500 Tuvalu-born residents in Australia, who may also be eligible.
In a statement to AAP, Home Affairs confirmed there was no "pre-vetting" or checking for eligibility or duplicate applications.
"As part of their ballot registration process, participants have to make a declaration that they meet the relevant eligibility criteria," a spokesman said.
"An individual can only register as the primary applicant once in each ballot process. Eligible family members can register for the ballot separately."
People "fill out visas wrongly all the time", one official with experience of Australia's immigration system told AAP, including good faith mistakes and attempts to game the system.
The visa - a country-specific extension of a regional ballot for permanent residency introduced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government - is seen as something of a painful necessity by Tuvalu.
The island chain's highest point is just 6m above sea level, leaving it exposed to the dangers of climate change including king tides that bring flooding.
Tuvalu's plight was brought to global attention by Mr Kofe in 2021 when he delivered Tuvalu's national statement to COP28, the UN's annual climate conference while standing in thigh-deep water in his home country.
It is for these reasons that Tuvalu sought the Falepili Union, according to Mr Albanese, which also includes a promise from Australia for assistance during disasters.
While the visa is undoubtedly popular, and theoretically could see all of Tuvalu's citizens leave the country by mid-century given the annual allowance of 280 visa, Tuvalu is unlikely to accept this outcome.
At a ratification ceremony for the Falepili Union at the Pacific Islands Forum leaders summit in Tonga in 2024, Prime Minister Feleti Teo spoke of the importance of retaining citizens, telling AAP he believed "most of the people in Tuvalu will stay".
Mr Kofe said he believed many applicants were not looking to move but rather bypass onerous visa rules, a huge complaint among citizens of Pacific island nations who travel regularly, and effectively earn visa-free travel rights.
"Others are getting it purely to have greater access, travel, freedom through Australia and to Australia," Mr Kofe said.
"We all apply for visas to go to Australia. We have quite a large diaspora there in Australia and we do travel a lot so for convenience, it's really good to have this visa for Tuvaluans."
He said Tuvalu asked for a cap of 280 visas to avoid a brain drain that might "impact on the government services and the ability of government to deliver its services to its people".
"We had the sense that it was going to be quite popular," Mr Kofe said.
"This first year will be an opportunity for us to look at it and review ... we wanted people to live in Tuvalu and continue to work in Tuvalu."